Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 35.787843 38.844291 42.190996 46.155984 50.763187 55.995773 62.458515
2025-03-30 31.086987 35.099067 39.795968 45.800385 53.426747 63.020917 76.412471
2025-04-06 28.149022 32.557517 37.938851 45.169648 54.936075 68.182849 88.565612
2025-04-13 25.627014 30.126961 35.779565 43.647047 54.763705 70.739777 97.363603
2025-04-20 24.730446 29.592212 35.895109 45.024314 58.623294 79.600766 118.396497
2025-04-27 23.900986 29.032884 35.869019 46.125352 62.159482 88.631950 143.148188
2025-05-04 23.067403 28.377090 35.615287 46.812999 65.095718 97.271366 171.157929
2025-05-11 22.032923 27.359190 34.746123 46.443469 66.200357 102.820727 195.279412
2025-05-18 21.051505 26.344628 33.792237 45.821761 66.746878 107.381566 219.723269
2025-05-25 20.087139 25.294207 32.705997 44.872014 66.556486 110.369780 241.853492
2025-06-01 19.212552 24.323768 31.673053 43.909275 66.200836 112.915704 264.751347
2025-06-08 18.345570 23.321923 30.532920 42.671586 65.167167 113.707921 282.439293
2025-06-15 18.146773 23.307462 30.932481 44.132435 69.707969 129.419279 382.463844
2025-06-22 17.550225 22.677689 30.341286 43.832973 70.699612 136.684611 459.377047
2025-06-29 16.941083 21.997829 29.626827 43.244653 70.991029 142.183885 541.120290
2025-07-06 16.202299 21.091001 28.501875 41.824932 69.296863 141.448629 578.617031
2025-07-13 16.071689 21.097882 28.842104 43.109247 73.782286 161.446809 896.365472
2025-07-20 15.893786 21.020864 29.036210 44.134751 77.885575 182.745791 1511.180664
2025-07-27 15.653197 20.833437 29.032323 44.774677 81.194852 203.490134 2835.196887
2025-08-03 15.253728 20.379228 28.552451 44.430843 81.964133 214.560495 4873.704565
2025-08-10 14.838023 19.883862 27.978186 43.852095 82.036310 222.800445 9148.475174
2025-08-17 14.394186 19.328999 27.277635 42.967309 81.170137 226.345645 17521.203541
2025-08-24 13.971203 18.794704 26.591715 42.069594 80.162373 228.920305 45410.998148